Winter 2025: When My Convenience Store and the Markets Both Froze

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Winter 2025: When My Convenience Store and the Markets Both Froze

── Reading the Signals of Spring 2026 Through December's Chill

1. The Coldest Days at My Store

Every year after December 20th, my convenience store gets eerily quiet.

Customers disappear. Suddenly, noticeably. You'd think year-end would mean more spending, but the reality is the opposite. People stay home, focus on holiday preparations, and cut unnecessary expenses. This pattern continues until January 10th. I think it's a combination of anxiety about the coming year and the fact that money's already flowing out to frequent holiday gatherings. Yes, seasonal cold plays a role, but psychological contraction is the bigger factor.

In December 2025, it's not just my store that's cold. The markets have frozen too.

The S&P 500 is down 7.8% from its late October peak, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 14% (though it's shown some recovery, it continues to fluctuate up and down). Bitcoin crashed 33% from $126,000 to $84,000, and MSTU (MicroStrategy 2x leveraged ETF), which I'm indirectly invested in, has been shaken even harder. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 10-15 (extreme fear), marking its lowest point since the FTX collapse in 2022. The VIX (fear index) surged past 45, threatening 2020 pandemic-era levels.

The strange thing is, like my store's sales decline, there's no clear "specific reason." Corporate earnings are solid. Employment indicators are robust. The rate-cutting cycle is alive. Yet prices won't move. People are closing their wallets, reducing positions, and watching from the sidelines in the vague chill of "policy uncertainty."

As a convenience store owner and a novice investor who started in 2024, I'm trying to figure out how to read this winter.

2. First Winter vs. Second Winter

My first real correction after starting to invest came in April-May 2025.

Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and the market panicked. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 20%, Bitcoin collapsed from $70,000 to $50,000. That was genuinely terrifying. I hadn't even been investing for a year. I thought "Is this the end?" My portfolio value melted away daily. Every time I checked my account on my phone behind the convenience store counter, I could barely breathe.

But now, the November-December 2025 correction feels much less scary, despite similar percentage drops.

Why? Because I've been through April-May. I learned then: markets that look like they're collapsing eventually recover. When fear peaks, that's often the bottom. VIX 45 might mean "opportunity" rather than "end."

After the April-May correction, June-October was a gentle recovery. Not dramatic, but steady. Then November brought another chill. This time it was tariff lawsuits, Trump's statements, and year-end tax-loss harvesting all at once. But I'm calm this time. Even as MSTU shakes, even as Tesla and UnitedHealth drop, my dividend-focused portfolio gives me psychological cushion.

The first winter was frightening, but the second winter is manageable. Once you've lived through winter, you learn how to dress warmly.

3. Winter 2018: I Wasn't an Investor

In December 2018, I didn't invest. I just ran my convenience store.

The atmosphere was bad then too. Customers talked about how "the economy's getting worse," "next year will be tougher." Store sales dropped. Despite it being year-end, consumption contracted. Trump declared "I am a Tariff Man" on December 4, 2018. Markets crashed. The S&P 500 dropped -9% in December alone, nearly hitting circuit breakers on Christmas Eve.

I had no direct losses since I wasn't investing. But I heard plenty of "stocks are ruined" around me. I remember a regular customer who smoked in the parking lot, staring at his phone and exhaling bitter smoke.

Then in January 2019, Fed Chair Powell said he'd be "patient." The so-called "Powell Put." Markets immediately rebounded, and through 2019, the S&P 500 rose +31.5%.

That's when I thought "I wish I'd bought then." One reason this convenience store owner became interested in investing was precisely that 2018-2019 cycle. The pattern of dramatic recovery following extreme fear. I watched it from the sidelines.

December 2025 looks so much like December 2018. Trump, tariffs, VIX spike, year-end panic. The difference is, this time I'm a participant.

4. Winter Scenarios: Which Solution Will Trump Choose?

The single variable dominating markets right now is the tariff lawsuit.

The Court of International Trade (CIT) and the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals both ruled Trump's IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs illegal. The Supreme Court's final ruling is expected in June 2026. If SCOTUS upholds the lower courts, tariffs collected since April 2025 ($195-215B) must be refunded, with potential total refunds reaching $750B-$1T.

The question is how Trump will handle this. I've analyzed multiple scenarios, but the most likely seems to be:

Switch to Trade Law + Blame Democrats After Refunds

If IEEPA is invalidated, Trump will immediately switch to Section 301 (unfair trade response) and Section 232 (national security tariffs). These two provisions are explicitly delegated by Congress, making them legally solid. Tariff rates will be restored to 70-80% levels, with the remainder operating as "selective tariffs." Focus on strategic targets like China and the EU, using the rest as negotiating chips.

And the refunds? Trump will blame Democrats. "The Supreme Court blocked my policy," "Democratic judges betrayed America." When the fiscal deficit grows from refund shock, he'll claim "this isn't my fault but judicial overreach." It's a strategy to rally his base ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This scenario's advantage is being less shocking to markets. Tariffs don't disappear. Only the legal basis changes. Refunds happen, but they're a temporary bonus for companies, and the tariff system remains long-term. Volatility yes, but not "collapse."

The worst scenario is Refund Shock + Gridlock. If SCOTUS rules against him, $750B+ refunds are confirmed, and Trump can't present alternatives, markets panic. Nasdaq -20%+, Bitcoin possibly to $50-70k. In this case, Democrats' probability of retaking the House in 2026 midterms jumps above 70%.

But I put this scenario's probability at 40%. Trump will be prepared. He survived similar situations in 2018.

5. What DVS Says About Winter's End

I analyze markets using my self-developed DVS (Deep Value Score) formula.

DVS synthesizes price momentum, volatility, trading volume, etc. to identify "bottom zones." Backtesting showed pretty good accuracy. Not perfect, but useful for reference.

As of December 2, 2025, DVS is signaling "bottom zone entry."

Especially as the 1-2 month decline continued, bottom signals became clearer. VIX 45, Crypto Fear & Greed 10-15, Nasdaq down 14%. Historically, this is "extreme fear" territory. That's when DVS shines.

Of course "bottom" doesn't mean "the absolute floor right now." It could drop further. But when DVS signals bottom, the probability of positive returns over 3-6 months has been above 75%.

So I'm not adjusting my portfolio now. I'm maintaining my dividend-focused structure. Even as Tesla and UnitedHealth shake, dividend income keeps flowing. MSTU is volatile, but as a leveraged ETF, it recovers fast too. Some crypto exposure remains, but it's a manageable portion of my total portfolio.

DVS is a thermometer measuring winter's length. Right now, that thermometer reads "minus 15 degrees Celsius, thaw approaching."

6. Surviving Winter: Watch Only Two Dates

What investors should do now is simple.

December 15th CBP Deadline and June 2026 Supreme Court Final Ruling. Just monitor these two closely.

December 15th is the CBP (Customs and Border Protection) liquidation deadline. After this date, tariff refund eligibility is essentially determined. The key is what actions the Trump administration takes before this point. If nothing happens, refund shock scenario probability rises.

June 2026 is when the Supreme Court ruling is expected. This decides everything. IEEPA invalidation vs. Trump victory. The former means refunds + trade law switch, the latter means complete tariff system maintenance. Markets will maintain volatility throughout first half 2026 waiting for this ruling.

And importantly, historically this kind of uncertainty gets resolved after midterm elections.

If Democrats retake the House in November 2026 midterms, Trump's extreme policies automatically get checked. Markets conclude "things are stabilizing now" and rebound. November 2018 midterms → January 2019 Powell Put → +31.5% rise. This pattern will likely repeat in 2026-2027.

So even if refund shock comes, I'll view it as a buying opportunity. With conditions. Only when Democrat House retaking probability exceeds 60%. In that case, I'll trust 2018-2019 seasonality and start gradual buying.

Winter isn't long. Like my store's lowest sales period (December 20-January 10), markets' coldest stretch lasts at most 2-3 months.

7. The Deeper the Winter, The Stronger the Spring

Running a convenience store for over 10 years taught me something.

Winter always comes. Every year late December-early January, sales drop. At first I was anxious. "What if it doesn't recover this time?" But mid-January, customers return. By February, things normalize. Winter repeats, but so does spring.

Markets are the same.

December 2018, VIX 36, S&P -9%, Christmas Eve panic. Then January 2019, the Powell Put heater turned on. Winter ended, spring came. +31.5% rise.

December 2025, VIX 45, Nasdaq -14%, Bitcoin -33%, Crypto Fear & Greed 10-15. My store is quiet, markets are frozen. But I know. This winter will pass too.

The difference is, in winter 2018 I was a spectator, in winter 2025 I'm a participant. In 2018 I regretted "I should've bought then," but in 2025 I have the option "I can buy now."

DVS is signaling bottom. Two milestones exist: December 15th and June 2026. Post-midterm seasonality hasn't failed in 100 years. My portfolio is stabilized with dividend stocks, volatile assets at manageable levels.

The deeper the winter, the stronger the spring. At my convenience store, and in markets.

When spring 2026 signals arrive in January-February, I'll be ready.

Key References and Sources

  1. U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (2025.10) – Tariff collections $215B
    https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/

  2. Tax Foundation – Tariff Revenue Scenarios (2025.11)
    https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

  3. Yale Budget Lab – Economic Impact of Tariffs (2025.8)
    https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/tariffs-2025

  4. Goldman Sachs – Tariff Pass-Through and Refund Risk Estimates (2025.8~11)

  5. Federal Reserve Bank of New York – VIX & Santa Rally Historical Data
    https://www.newyorkfed.org/

  6. White House Executive Orders & Fact Sheets (2025.4~11)
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/

  7. U.S. Court of International Trade Docket (Case 1:25-cv-00056, etc.)
    https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/

  8. Bloomberg Tariff Tracker (Real-time)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tariff-tracker/

  9. CoinGlass – Crypto Liquidation & Fear & Greed Index
    https://www.coinglass.com/

  10. JPMorgan Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2025 – Post-midterm return statistics

  11. Gallup Presidential Approval Rating (2018 vs 2025 comparison)
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

  12. Reuters, Politico, SCOTUSblog – Lawsuit and policy coverage synthesis


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