The Droplet Theory: Why social media(SNS) Broke Its Promise

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The Promise of 2010

"Now everyone can have a voice."

This is what we heard in the early 2010s, when SNS was exploding in popularity. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube. These platforms would break the monopoly of traditional media and bring "true democratization."

And it actually happened. At least for the first few years.

Individual bloggers beat major news outlets, unknown YouTubers surpassed broadcast producers, and ordinary people's tweets changed politics. A world without gatekeepers. A world where everyone could start on equal footing.

But now in 2025, what are we seeing?

Mega influencers with 10 million subscribers. Content with hundreds of millions of views. "Recommended" feeds determined by algorithms. And the vast majority of individuals still can't break through a few dozen followers and 100 views.

What happened?

Spheres and Droplets: A New Perspective

To answer this question, let's think about it a different way.

Imagine society as a "sphere." Like a smooth-surfaced ball floating in the air. And the emergence of SNS was like spraying countless "droplets" onto this sphere.

Each droplet symbolizes an individual's opinion, content, and voice.

Before 2010, there were hardly any droplets on this sphere. If there were, they were only massive institutions like major news outlets, broadcasters, and publishers. Individuals? They had no way to establish a position on the sphere.

But when SNS emerged, suddenly hundreds of millions of droplets were sprayed simultaneously. Everyone established a position on the sphere. Equal starting point. A moment of democratization.

But here's where something interesting happens.

The Fate of Droplets: Flowing, Meeting, and Absorbing

Droplets sprayed on the sphere don't stay still.

They begin to flow under the influence of gravity. In what direction? Actually, no one knows. The sphere is a perfect ball, and any direction could be "down."

Then droplets meet other droplets.

And due to the nature of water, when they meet, they merge into one. This is the key. When two small droplets meet, they become one slightly larger droplet.

In SNS terms:

  • Your opinion + someone else with similar thoughts = A louder voice
  • Content A + Content B sharing/retweeting = Wider spread
  • 100 followers + 100 followers = Community of 200

At first, this seems good. Because solidarity is happening.

The problem is that this process continues.

The Paradox of Size: The Big Get Bigger

Droplet A is size 1. Droplet B is also size 1. When they meet? They become size 2.

Now when this size 2 droplet meets a size 1 droplet? It becomes size 3.

And a size 3 droplet is much more powerful than a size 1 droplet. Because:

  1. It has a larger surface area, so higher probability of meeting other droplets
  2. It resists gravity (social pressure) better
  3. It has the power to attract smaller droplets

This happened in the early days of SNS.

In 2010, everyone had 100 followers. Around 2012, some people had 10,000 followers. By 2015, they had 100,000. By 2020, 1,000,000. Now in 2025, 10,000,000.

Meanwhile, the majority still have 100 followers.

This is "natural concentration."

No one did anything particularly bad. It's just the physical properties of droplets. The big grow bigger, and the small are absorbed or fall off.

The Importance of Position: Luck and Timing

So do all droplets suffer the same fate? No.

This is where "position" becomes important.

There are countless points on the sphere. Some positions are good, some are bad. Physically they all look the same, but in reality, there are differences.

Good positions are:

  • Sprayed early (First-mover advantage)
  • Many small droplets nearby to absorb
  • Far from large droplets (no competition yet)

Bad positions are:

  • Sprayed late
  • Already giant droplets nearby
  • No targets to absorb

This is the difference between someone who started YouTube in 2010 versus 2020. Even with the same content quality, the 2010 person has an overwhelming advantage.

This is luck. It's a complex factor.

No matter how persuasive your opinion is, if the timing is bad, it's hard to survive. Conversely, even with mediocre content, if the timing is good, you can grow tremendously.

This is the first truth of the SNS era: Timing and luck are more important than individual ability.

The Cycle of Polarization: Endless Concentration

Up to here is still understandable. Wasn't the world always like this anyway?

But what's interesting is what comes next.

Once a few giant droplets establish themselves on the sphere, the remaining small droplets find it increasingly difficult to survive. Because:

  1. Large droplets suck in small droplets
  2. Newly sprayed droplets automatically flow toward large droplets
  3. Even when small droplets meet each other, they struggle to compete with large droplets

Eventually, the sphere becomes "polarized."

A tiny minority of giant droplets vs. a majority of micro droplets.

Looking at the 2025 SNS ecosystem, this is exactly the state we're in:

  • Top 1% of creators account for 80% of total views
  • A few mega influencers lead public opinion
  • The remaining 99% are essentially spectators

But what's interesting is that even this polarization isn't permanent.

Because droplets that become too large eventually "fall off." Unable to bear their own weight, or because they're too tilted toward a specific point on the sphere.

Think about the downfall of famous influencers. Scandals, mistakes, audience fatigue. Someone with 10 million views yesterday suddenly disappears.

Then a vacancy opens up, and a new droplet takes that position.

This is "generational change." The mainstream keeps changing, but the fact that the mainstream is a minority doesn't change.

2025: AI as a Game Changer

This has been the story of the SNS era so far.

It's already complex enough and unequal enough. But we're now facing an even bigger change.

The emergence of AI.

AI adds a completely new element to this sphere-droplet system. The "core."

Imagine this. Inside some droplets, a small, solid core forms. From the outside, they look similar to regular droplets, but their internal structure is different.

Droplets with cores:

  1. Are stronger even at the same size (higher density)
  2. Absorb other droplets more easily
  3. Are harder to fall off (increased stability)
  4. Grow faster

AI is precisely this "core."

Three Types of Droplets: A New Class System

In the AI era, droplets are divided into three types.

1. Corporate Droplets (Super Large + Core)

They were already big, and now they've gained cores too.

Google, Meta, Naver, Samsung. They were already giants, but through AI, their efficiency has increased more than 10-fold.

For example:

  • Content generation speed 10x
  • Customer service automation (90% cost reduction)
  • Algorithm sophistication (recommendation accuracy 2x)

When an already large droplet gains a core? It instantly sucks in all the small droplets around it.

2. Core Individuals (Small-Medium + Core)

This is where it gets interesting.

They were originally small droplets, but they've gained cores. Their size is still small, but their density is high, giving them medium-enterprise level power.

For example:

  • A solo creator producing 100x content with AI
  • A freelancer doing corporate design team-level work with AI
  • An individual investor running quant strategies with AI

They are "individuals" but have "corporate-grade" influence.

Looking at the sphere, their size is medium but their density is high, so they can compete with large droplets. They don't fall off, and they actually grow by absorbing other small droplets.

This is the new "mainstream."

3. Regular Droplets (Small, No Core)

Individuals who don't use AI or can't use it.

They're in the same state as the 2010s. But the surrounding environment has completely changed.

  • Corporations have become 10x stronger with AI
  • Core individuals have newly emerged
  • They themselves are the same

As a result, their relative position drops sharply.

On the sphere, they're gradually pushed out, and eventually fall off or are absorbed by other droplets.

Streams: Invisible Manipulation

There's one more thing to add here.

AI algorithms don't just give cores to individual droplets. They also affect the sphere itself.

They create invisible "grooves" on the sphere's surface. Streams are created.

Droplets think they're moving freely, but in reality, they flow in specific directions along streams created by AI.

This is the recommendation algorithm.

Think about the YouTube algorithm:

  • You feel like you're freely choosing videos
  • But the "recommended" feed is already predetermined
  • As a result, it concentrates on specific creators

TikTok is even more powerful. The FYP (For You Page) algorithm essentially completely controls the flow of droplets.

The droplet's (individual's) will doesn't matter. The algorithm (stream) has already determined the path.

Result:

  • Mainstream formation speed increases 10x
  • Minority concentration intensifies
  • But individuals don't perceive this (illusion of free will)

Paradox: Democratization or Oligopoly?

At this point, a question arises.

"Does AI ultimately strengthen or weaken individuals?"

My expectation is both.

Positive Aspect: The Possibility of Core Individuals

Clearly, AI gives individuals unprecedented opportunities.

Things that were impossible in 2010:

  • Individuals producing corporate-grade content (editing, design, composition all with AI)
  • Language barrier removal (automatic translation, dubbing)
  • Professional knowledge accessibility (AI provides expert-level advice)

Looking at actual cases:

  • Solo developers creating games (AI supports coding, graphics, sound)
  • High schoolers reaching 1 million YouTube subscribers (AI editing, thumbnails, scripts)
  • One-person shopping malls earning 100 million won per month (AI handles product planning, marketing, CS)

They're not "companies" in the traditional sense, but they have corporate-level influence.

In droplet theory, their size is medium but their density is high, so they enter the "mainstream."

This is hope. Individuals can also become mainstream.

Negative Aspect: More Severe Polarization

But at the same time, AI accelerates polarization.

Because:

  1. There are barriers to acquiring cores
    • Learning time (mastering AI usage)
    • Capital (paid tools, GPT-4, Claude Pro, etc.)
    • Room for experimentation (environment that can tolerate trial and error)
  2. Corporations are more advantaged
    • Already have data
    • Have AI development resources
    • Economies of scale (can utilize more cheaply)
  3. Individuals without cores are relatively weakened
    • Productivity gap of 10x or more
    • Loss of market competitiveness
    • Eventually eliminated

As a result:

  • Core holders (corporations + core individuals) = minority
  • Non-core holders (regular individuals) = majority

Still, a minority forms the mainstream. The only difference is that "core individuals" can now be included in that minority.

Concrete Cases: Where Are You?

Rather than abstract theory, let's look at concrete cases.

Case 1: Convenience Store Owner Mr. A

Current Situation:

  • Monthly revenue: 45 million won
  • Net profit: 2 million won
  • Works 59 hours per week
  • No AI use

Droplet Status:

  • Size: Small (individual business owner)
  • Density: Low (no core)
  • Position: Unstable (risk of falling)

2 Years Later (Without AI Use):

  • Net profit still 2 million won (real decrease considering inflation)
  • Competition intensifies due to AI efficiency of large convenience store chains
  • Droplet gradually shrinks or falls off

Case 2: Convenience Store Owner Mr. B (Same person, AI user)

Current Situation:

  • Monthly revenue: 45 million won
  • Net profit: 2 million won
  • But uses AI in spare time
    • Blog writing (GPT/Claude)
    • Novel writing (AI editing support)
    • Investment strategy development (AI analysis)

Droplet Status:

  • Size: Small → Growing to medium
  • Density: High (core acquired)
  • Position: Stabilizing

2 Years Later (With AI Use):

  • Convenience store: 2 million won
  • Blog income: 1 million won (AdSense + affiliate)
  • Novel serialization: 500,000 won
  • Investment dividends: 300,000 won
  • Total: 3.8 million won

More importantly, he's now become a "core individual." Even if he quits the convenience store, he has other income sources and can continue to grow.

Case 3: Corporate Employee Mr. C

Current Situation:

  • Monthly salary: 4 million won
  • Works 40 hours per week
  • Uses AI (provided by company)

Droplet Status:

  • Size: Medium (part of corporation)
  • Density: Medium (uses part of company's core)
  • Position: Stable (attached to large droplet)

Problem:

  • Not his personal core (controlled by company)
  • Loses core if leaves company
  • High replaceability (AI automating work)

2 Years Later:

  • Salary 4.5 million won (increase)
  • But increased restructuring risk due to AI automation
  • No growth as individual droplet

Case 4: Solo Creator Ms. D

Current Situation:

  • YouTube subscribers: 100K
  • Monthly income: 3 million won
  • Full AI utilization (editing, thumbnails, scripts)

Droplet Status:

  • Size: Medium
  • Density: Very high (strong core)
  • Position: Rapidly growing

2 Years Later:

  • Subscribers: 1 million (10x production with AI)
  • Monthly income: 30 million won
  • Additional revenue sources (lectures, consulting, book publishing)

Complete core individual. Can enter mainstream without a corporation.

Future Scenarios: The Sphere 5 Years From Now

What will the sphere look like in 2030?

Scenario 1: Core Democratization (Optimistic)

AI tools become completely free and usage becomes simple.

Result:

  • Anyone can acquire cores
  • Core individuals increase significantly
  • Mainstream range broadens
  • Diversity increases

But even in this case:

  • Competition is still fierce
  • Natural concentration occurs again
  • New differentiation factors emerge (creativity, speed, etc.)

Scenario 2: Core Monopoly (Pessimistic)

AI tools become expensive and monopolized by corporations.

Result:

  • Barriers to core acquisition rise
  • Core individuals limited to few
  • Polarization maximized
  • Corporations + few core individuals vs. majority of regular people

In fact, signs are already visible:

  • GPT-4 Turbo: $20/month
  • Claude Pro: $20/month
  • Professional AI tools: $50-200/month

You need capital to obtain a core.

Scenario 3: Partial Democratization (Realistic)

Some free, some paid. A middle ground.

Result:

  • Basic cores for everyone (free AI)
  • Powerful cores only for few (paid, custom AI)
  • Stratification: Corporations > Core individuals (paid) > Core individuals (free) > Regular people

This is the state we're in now in 2025.

And probably 5 years from now will be similar. Neither complete democratization nor complete monopoly, but an ambiguous middle.

After the Droplet Falls: Can You Start Again?

One important question remains here.

"What happens to fallen droplets?"

Droplets that fall from the sphere drop to the floor of the room. Do they disappear?

No.

Through some stimulus or phenomenon, they can "evaporate" and return to the sphere. Or the droplet itself tries to reattach to the sphere by its own will.

In SNS terms:

  • Once-famous people making comebacks
  • Failed entrepreneurs making comebacks with new items
  • Retired celebrities reappearing on YouTube

Droplets don't completely disappear even when they fall. Another chance can come.

But even here, AI is a variable.

Droplets with cores:

  • Are hard to fall off
  • Return quickly even if they fall
  • Come back stronger

Droplets without cores:

  • Fall off easily
  • Hard to return
  • High probability of falling again even if they return

Society's Capacity: Can the Sphere Grow?

The last question.

"If the sphere itself grows, won't everyone have a place?"

Theoretically, yes. If society's capacity grows, more droplets can exist simultaneously.

But in reality:

The sphere's growth rate is very slow.

Expansion of society's capacity involves:

  • Institutional change (decades)
  • Perception change (generational change)
  • Technological innovation (gradual)

Meanwhile, the rate of droplet increase is exponential:

  • SNS users: 10x increase in 10 years
  • Content production: 2x increase annually
  • AI users: 10x increase in 2 years

Supply > Demand

The sphere grows slowly, but droplets increase rapidly. As a result, competition continues to intensify, and falling droplets continue to increase.

So, What's the Answer?

We've now seen the complete picture of droplet theory.

2010: SNS Emergence

  • Everyone establishes position on sphere
  • Equal starting point
  • Hope

2015: Natural Concentration

  • Big get bigger
  • Mainstream formation
  • Polarization begins

2020: Algorithm Domination

  • Invisible streams
  • Recommended feeds control flow
  • Mainstream solidification

2025: AI Injection

  • Core emergence
  • Core individual possibility
  • Accelerated polarization

2030: ?

The future is open. But one thing is clear.

SNS's promise to "give everyone a voice" was not kept.

Instead, what we got:

  • Shortened mainstream replacement cycle (10 years → 2 years)
  • Possibility for individuals to become mainstream (core individuals)
  • But still minority monopoly

And now the question is this.

What Kind of Droplet Are You?

Where are you on the sphere right now as you read this?

Are you a small droplet at risk of falling?

  • Don't know AI, or
  • Don't use it, or
  • No time to learn

Are you a medium droplet with stable position?

  • Belong to a company, or
  • Have fixed income, or
  • But personal growth is stagnant

Are you a droplet starting to gain a core?

  • Learning AI, or
  • Making new attempts, or
  • Small but increasing in density

Are you already a giant mainstream droplet?

  • Hundreds of thousands of subscribers
  • Stable income
  • But don't know when you'll fall

Wherever you are, one thing is clear.

If you stay still, you'll fall.

The sphere doesn't stop. It continues to rotate, shake, and change. And with the new variable of AI, there are no safe positions.

Will You Acquire a Core or Not?

In the end, it's a choice.

Choice 1: Acquire a Core

Method:

  • Learn AI tools (GPT, Claude, Midjourney, etc.)
  • Utilize spare time (convenience store counter, commute, weekends)
  • Start small projects (blog, YouTube, side projects)
  • Repeat failures (reattach even if droplet falls)

Result:

  • Core individual possibility in 2 years
  • Can survive without corporation
  • Opportunity to enter mainstream

Risks:

  • Time investment (difficult to balance with work)
  • No initial income (patience required)
  • Possibility of failure (can fall off)

Choice 2: Don't Acquire a Core

Method:

  • Maintain current state
  • Work in existing way
  • Seek stability

Result:

  • Comfortable for now
  • Fixed income maintained
  • No psychological burden

Risks:

  • Competitiveness decline in 2 years
  • Increased risk of AI replacement
  • Relative position decline
  • High probability of eventually falling

Closing: Droplets Continue to Flow

In 2010, we believed SNS would change the world.

It wasn't wrong. The world did change. But not in the direction we wanted.

The promise that "everyone speaks with equal voice" couldn't overcome the laws of physics. Droplets flow, meet, absorb, and fall. Naturally.

In 2025, AI makes another promise.

"Now anyone can become a corporation."

Will it be kept this time?

Probably not. Not completely.

But what's important is that this time we know. We know the laws of droplets. The importance of cores. The mechanism of mainstream formation.

If you know, you can prepare.

You can implant a core in your droplet.

You can find a good position on the sphere.

Even if you fall, you can climb back up.

There is now one question:

"Will you acquire a core?"

The choice is yours.

But remember.

Not choosing is also a choice, and that choice has consequences.

Droplets continue to flow.

You will flow too.

In some direction.

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