Predicting Trump's Next Move from Behind a Convenience Store Counter
A Thought Experiment from an Investor Holding 2% in MSTU
1. Opening My Account at Dawn
November 21st, 6 AM.
A brief lull during my convenience store shift.
Out of habit, I opened my brokerage app.
MSTU. MicroStrategy 2x leveraged ETF.
2% of my portfolio.
Not a significant amount. Losing it wouldn't affect my livelihood.
Still, I can't help but pay attention.
That day's headline appeared:
"MicroStrategy Faces Nasdaq 100 Delisting Risk"
Sure, it's only 2%, but with 2x leverage, that means...
I tapped the calculator. What if it drops 30%? My account?
Honestly, I'm not worried, but I can't help being intrigued.
Then, mid-calculation, a thought struck me:
"What would I do?"
"If I were Trump, how would I solve this situation?"
A convenience store owner playing president might seem absurd,
but investing makes you ask these questions.
Reading the market ultimately means
predicting "what will those in power do next?"
I opened Grok.
2. Forty Questions, Finding One Answer
The first question was simple:
"If MicroStrategy gets kicked out of Nasdaq 100, won't Bitcoin crash with it?"
Grok's response was clinical:
70% probability of MSCI reclassification failure.
$2.8-8.8 billion in passive fund outflows.
Potential 20-30% additional stock decline.
Bitcoin could take a 5-10% short-term hit.
The numbers made me more anxious.
But simultaneously, another thought emerged:
"Would Trump just sit idle?"
Second question:
"What's the likelihood of the Trump administration incorporating MicroStrategy as a national asset?"
I imagined a scenario like Intel or rare earth minerals—
classifying it as a "national security asset"
and injecting government funds.
But Grok answered coldly:
"Legally impossible. Fifth Amendment violation. Probability 5-10% or less."
Ah, I see.
Direct investment isn't an option.
Third question:
"What if China announces massive Bitcoin accumulation when MicroStrategy collapses?"
This path was also blocked.
China runs e-CNY, a centralized system—
officially recognizing Bitcoin would be self-contradictory.
Probability less than 25%.
Fourth, fifth... the questions continued.
Every time a customer entered, I'd pause the conversation,
then resume. Over and over.
Then I realized:
"Ah, I'm searching for 'ways Trump can directly save MicroStrategy.'"
But as my conversation with Grok deepened,
the answer lay in the opposite direction.
Trump doesn't need to touch MicroStrategy directly.
3. Government Relief Vouchers at the Counter, and a Sudden Connection
In my area, the government issued relief vouchers twice this year,
distributed to the public.
Thanks to them, many people visited my store,
especially elderly customers.
Many received them through unfamiliar payment methods—
KakaoPay or NaverPay.
First-time users, but everyone seemed amazed after trying.
Just scan the barcode to pay, and a text shows
the remaining balance.
I've been running this convenience store for 10 years,
witnessing countless payment systems.
Samsung Pay is slow. Authentication takes 4-5 seconds.
Card insertion and removal takes 2-3 seconds.
Cash... counting change makes it 10 seconds minimum.
But KakaoPay or NaverPay, and the relief vouchers linked to those payment systems,
made checkout simple.
QR scan and done. Or one NFC tap.
Ten years ago when I started this store,
elderly customers insisted on cash only.
Five years ago, cards.
Now, QR codes.
The technology gap closes faster than you'd think.
Digital welfare was already working.
In that moment, one line from my conversation with Grok flashed through my mind:
"SNAP (food assistance) operating costs: $9 billion annually.
Of that, $4 billion just for mail, checks, and fraud prevention."
$4 billion.
About 5 trillion won in Korean currency.
Just to mail paper checks
and run systems to prevent fraud.
But what if this switched to stablecoins?
$0.01-0.03 per transaction.
Basically free.
As this conversation continued, it felt like I was trying to convince Grok.
So I asked again:
"What if the Trump administration paid welfare benefits in stablecoins?"
The answer?
"This is a real 'killer app.'"
4. If I Were Trump, This Is What I'd Do
From this moment, the conversation took a completely different direction.
I stopped asking "Will my MSTU be okay?"
Instead, I asked:
"How would this actually be implemented?"
"Would there be pushback?"
"What if Democrats call it a 'speculative experiment'?"
"Can low-income people actually use digital wallets?"
These mechanisms need to exist for actual service delivery,
so I asked Grok about feasibility.
Implementation Stages
Stage 1: January 2026 State of the Union Address
"Starting July 1, 2026,
we will distribute 50% of SNAP and WIC in USDC (stablecoin)."
Just one sentence.
Stage 2: Pilot Program
Texas and Florida, two states. 100,000 households for 3 months.
Partnership with Circle (USDC issuer).
Wallet setup education + $10 first-time bonus.
Stage 3: National Rollout
After 6 months, expand to 42 million people nationwide.
Creates forced demand for $12.2 billion in stablecoins monthly.
Effects
Cost Savings: $2.5-4 billion annually
Fraud Prevention: Blocks 80% of current $4 billion annual losses
Transparency: All transactions on-chain, real-time auditing
Buy Pressure: $12.2 billion monthly = $146 billion annual stablecoin demand
And most importantly:
MicroStrategy comes back to life
without anyone lifting a finger.
Why?
When stablecoin demand explodes
→ USDC/USDT issuance increases
→ Reserves hold Treasury bonds + some crypto assets
→ Bitcoin demand naturally increases
→ BTC price rises
→ MicroStrategy debt ratio improves
→ Nasdaq 100 re-entry becomes possible
Trump never mentions saving MicroStrategy.
He just says "modernizing the welfare system."
5. How Would Democrats Push Back?
I asked Grok:
"What if Democrats call this a 'speculative experiment throwing the poor into a casino'?"
Grok's response was striking:
"Democrats already voted for the GENIUS Act.
Legislation regulating stablecoins with 1:1 reserves.
Passed July 2025.
342 in favor, 88 against.
60% of Democratic representatives voted yes."
Ah, I see.
The groundwork was already laid.
The only pushback Democrats could offer:
"We agree, but reserves should be Treasury-only."
That's not opposition—it's fine-tuning.
Trump already owns the frame.
6. 61% of 18-40 Year-Olds Already Have Wallets
Another surprising fact:
61% of Americans aged 18-40 already own crypto wallets.
Coinbase, MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Phantom...
Forms vary, but familiarity exists.
Like the relief vouchers I saw at my store,
just scan QR or tap NFC once.
Elderly population?
Children teach them in 5 minutes.
"Mom, install this once and
it comes in automatically every month. Same as a banking app."
According to 2025 Pew Research,
48% of those 65+ already do banking on smartphones.
How hard is installing one more app?
Not hard.
The technological barrier is lower than you'd think.
7. But What About Decentralization?
Midway through the conversation, I asked:
"But doesn't this mean
the government dominates the crypto market?
Isn't decentralization over?"
Grok answered honestly:
"Correct.
If the government holds just 5% of the market,
control over prices and regulation explodes.
Decentralization survives only technically."
This is a paradox.
Bitcoin originally championed "freedom from states and banks."
Now the state becomes the largest buyer.
But simultaneously, I thought:
Reality is more complex than ideals.
Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the Bitcoin whitepaper
after the 2008 financial crisis, amid distrust of banking systems,
dreaming of "pure P2P electronic currency."
But in 2025,
Bitcoin already sits in BlackRock ETFs,
listed companies like MicroStrategy buy it with leverage,
and nations like El Salvador adopt it as legal tender.
Decentralization has already diluted.
So the question we should ask isn't
"How do we preserve purity?"
but "How do we survive in this current?"
I'm an investor.
Not a philosopher.
8. I Decided to Keep MSTU
My conversation with Grok exceeded 40 exchanges.
I asked my final question:
"If this becomes reality, when might this announcement come?"
Grok's prediction:
January 2026 State of the Union, or as a surprise card right before midterms.
I was already planning to hold MSTU,
but this conversation gave me a quiet confidence.
The reason is simple.
If Trump actually announces
"We'll distribute welfare in stablecoins,"
Bitcoin will break $150,000,
MicroStrategy will recover to $300,
and MSTU... with 2x leverage, even more.
Of course, the announcement might not come.
Trump might play a different card.
MicroStrategy might actually get delisted from Nasdaq 100.
But I'm holding this 2%.
Because
I really like this scenario.
Trump never mentions MicroStrategy.
He just says "welfare innovation."
But the results:
- Costs are cut
- Transparency increases
- Approval ratings bounce back
- Crypto markets explode
- MicroStrategy survives
- Democrats have little room to push back
This is a politician's dream.
A good card that solves everything in one stroke.
And I've never seen politicians discard good cards.
And if someone like me can think of this, they surely already know.
9. Why a Convenience Store Owner Cosplayed as President
I closed the app and sat at the counter.
Shift change soon.
Forty questions, 5 hours of conversation.
A convenience store owner analyzing international affairs.
But investing makes you ask these questions:
"What will those in power do next?"
I'm not president.
I have no policy authority.
But I've bet money on the market.
And reading the market isn't
just looking at numbers.
It's reading the flow of power.
After seeing the MicroStrategy Nasdaq 100 delisting news,
I first asked "Will my account be okay?"
But as questions accumulated,
they transformed:
"What would Trump do?"
"How to turn this crisis into opportunity?"
"Minimum cost for maximum effect?"
And I found the answer:
Converting welfare to stablecoins.
This is the answer.
Not one I created.
An answer that logic discovered itself
through my conversation with Grok.
10. Waiting for January 2026
Call it fantasy if you want,
but investment markets actually grow on this kind of anticipation.
Finding reasons for that anticipation,
answering "why?" to yourself,
and building investment rationale—
that's the process, I believe.
I imagine:
Trump standing at the podium,
saying:
"Starting July 1, 2026,
America's welfare system goes digital."
When that one sentence arrives,
everything changes.
Bitcoin at $150,000.
MicroStrategy at $300.
MSTU... I won't calculate.
Too much expectation brings disappointment.
But one thing is certain:
This scenario is good enough
that discarding it would be wasteful.
And politicians
don't discard good cards.
I believe that.
Or rather, I want to believe it.
A convenience store owner's 2% bet.
Until January 2026.
Afterword
Writing this made me think
about the boundary between investing and thought experiments.
I'm not a professional analyst.
Just an ordinary investor
standing behind a convenience store counter
11 hours a day.
But I've learned something through investing:
Markets move not by numbers,
but by human decisions.
And to predict those decisions,
you must stand in their shoes.
"If I were Trump?"
This one question
spawned 40 conversations
and found one answer.
Whether that answer is correct—
we'll know in January 2026.
But at least
I've found a reason to hold this 2%
and wait for that day.
That alone gives me sufficient anticipation.
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